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Author |
Thread Statistics | Show CCP posts - 1 post(s) |
Hrothgar Nilsson
Black Core Federation Black Core Alliance
221
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Posted - 2013.01.11 17:19:00 -
[1] - Quote
Ageck Kalenia wrote:All this attention might suggest the future of EVE is rosy and bright, but consider:
- The future of traditional x86 and x64 PC architecture is increasingly vague. Laptops have been outselling desktop systems for years, but tablet sales are gaining exponentially. A whopping 122 million ARM-based tablets and smartphones sold in 2012. I really think all of this talk about tablets/touchscreens replacing the PC/laptop is a bunch of hype. I believe the reality is is that desktops and laptops have reached the point of market saturation, and as the market has become saturated, existing PC/laptop has slowed.
There hasn't really been that much of a technological change in software that necessarily requires the replacement of a 2008 computer in 2013. Yet, on the other hand, there is extremely rapid turnover in ownership of smartphones - the typical person goes through several in the time a typical PC/laptop owner replaces their computer.
The entire cell phone industry heavily incentivizes the rapid, serial discardment of old phones and replacement with new ones.
So, in that regard, comparing smartphone to PC/laptop sales is a false comparison. It is really apples and oranges. On the spectrum between disposable and durable goods, smartphones tend toward the disposable end, while PCs/laptops tend toward the durable end. Something like 130 million cell phones are discarded each year in the US, whereas computers are discarded at about 10-15% that rate.
With tablets, they may be replacing the laptop for consumers with relatively minimal needs, but I'd say this segment of the consumer place are mostly not the type of people who were intensive gamers to begin with. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTzA_xesrL8 |
Hrothgar Nilsson
Black Core Federation Black Core Alliance
236
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Posted - 2013.01.18 20:52:00 -
[2] - Quote
Another thing came to mind on this whole "PC is dying" and "tablets/smartphones are the future" spiel.
In addition to previous points:
1) The market for PCs has reached the saturation point, whereas smartphones/tablets have not. The number of homes in the US, for example, with at least one computer rose from 40% in 2000 to over 80% recently. That doesn't leave a huge market left to expand into as was formerly the case.
2) PCs are a more durable good with 10-15% the disposal rate of tablets/smartphones. So yes, 122 million ARM devices sold per year sounds impressive, but not when 100 million are thrown in the same time period.
3) PC software hasn't advanced so quickly that desktops several years old are necessarily obsolete.
I'd make another point:
4) Tablets/smartphones, in some cases distinct from those in which they're simply bought in addition to what's already owned, are simply replacing the role of an underutilized secondary or even tertiary home PC/laptop. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTzA_xesrL8 |
Hrothgar Nilsson
Black Core Federation Black Core Alliance
255
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Posted - 2013.02.06 11:01:00 -
[3] - Quote
Ageck Kalenia wrote:Frankly, I'm sick of the same tired arguments coming up again and again. If people debating your suppositions in an informed, intelligent, and reasoned way makes you 'sick', perhaps you ought not to be posting them in the first place.
You can have whatever opinion you'd like, but you're not entitled to be free of criticism and debate when you publish them.
If I may be frank, you come across as a teenager in that phase when they think they know it all. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTzA_xesrL8 |
Hrothgar Nilsson
Black Core Federation Black Core Alliance
255
|
Posted - 2013.02.07 00:03:00 -
[4] - Quote
Ageck Kalenia wrote:I see now it was a fallacious waste of effort to post this discussion on a forum inhabited overwhelmingly by Windows PC diehards. It's kind of like going to a convention of wheelwrights and predicting the end of the horse and buggy. I love PCs as much as anyone, but I can also look ahead and see the future of computing lies elsewhere. It seems you weren't interested in discussion at all, but rather expected people to accept your suppositions uncritically without question.
Speaking of fallacies, rather glaringly one stuck out in particular - lauding the 122 million number without context. Absent was any mention that these tablets/smartphones are discarded at nearly same rate they are purchased.
Or implying smartphones (probably about 80%+ of these ARM sales) are somehow a substitute good for a PC, when really only a tablet is, and only for those with rather basic/limited needs. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTzA_xesrL8 |
Hrothgar Nilsson
Black Core Federation Black Core Alliance
260
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Posted - 2013.02.08 23:45:00 -
[5] - Quote
ashley Eoner wrote:Well what will be interesting is how we overcome the rare earth element problem. Those fancy phones and tablets use a variety of rare earth elements that are currently being mined in China (mostly for the displays). Once the supply starts drying up the prices for the fancy gadgets that we currently throw away will skyrocket.
That's much more likely to happen before the tablet market becomes saturated like the conventional PC market is currently. Same way we historically overcome any commodity shortage/scarcity/etc.
For example in China, when there was a wood shortage in the 19th century, they started chopping their food into little bits so it'd cook faster. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTzA_xesrL8 |
Hrothgar Nilsson
Black Core Federation Black Core Alliance
268
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Posted - 2013.02.23 12:36:00 -
[6] - Quote
Anybody else notice the Playstation 4 is coming equipped with an x86 processor?
I guess Sony didn't notice either. OP should shoot Sony an email about the grievous mistake they're about to make. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTzA_xesrL8 |
Hrothgar Nilsson
Black Core Federation Black Core Alliance
268
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Posted - 2013.02.23 13:14:00 -
[7] - Quote
ashley Eoner wrote: 'Rare Earth Metals'
pretty much every word in that name is wrong.
They're not rare. They're not earths, and they're generally not really metals.
FYI, the term metals is used more broadly in chemistry than just those elements that can be smelted and forged. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZTzA_xesrL8 |
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